The Runningback Danger Zone
The NFL Draft is a time of hope—unless you’re a rookie running back about to land in a fantasy deathtrap.
Every year, dynasty managers fall for the same trap: elite prospect, shiny draft capital, and then… disaster. The logo on the helmet matters. The depth chart matters. And sometimes, a “dream” landing spot becomes a fantasy nightmare before rookie minicamp even starts.
Herein lies the DEFCON Meter—a tiered warning system to identify the worst possible landing spots for rookie RBs in the 2025 NFL Draft. From total wastelands to mildly infuriating committee situations, we’re breaking down which teams will bury your rookie’s value before he even gets his first carry.
Draft season is all about hope. This meter is all about preparing for pain.
Let’s sound the alarms.
DEFCON 3 – Annoying, Not Apocalyptic
“It won’t kill a rookie’s value outright… just slowly bleed it out over time.”
Los Angeles Rams
McVay might draft a back… and then forget he exists for months.
Kyren Williams owns this backfield, and he earned every snap through grit and production.
Davante Adams joins Puka Nacua giving the Rams one of the nastiest WR duos in the league.
McVay has a long history of ignoring RB depth until the starter gets hurt, and even then, it’s a toss-up.
Arizona Cardinals
You see opportunity. The Cardinals see the same two guys they already like.
James Conner is the ageless wonder, still productive and still soaking up all the touches.
Trey Benson flashed in ‘24, and the coaching staff is clearly into him, this isn’t a wide-open depth chart.
Any rookie here is walking into a two-man rotation with no real opening except on special teams.
DEFCON 3 – Committee-ville
“There’s technically a path to relevance here… but it’s full of potholes, detours, and sadness.”
Tennessee Titans
It’s a committee in search of a purpose — and your rookie isn’t the answer.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are locked in, and both can play, which is unfortunate for everyone else.
The O-line is still rebuilding, so there’s no easy runway to shine even if someone gets hurt.
Unless Cam (you know it’s happening) blows the doors off in camp, he’s just a dude with a clipboard.
New England Patriots
Bill may be gone, but the chaos remains.
Rhamondre is still Rhamondre, paid and not going anywhere.
Antonio Gibson clogs the passing lane and he’s got enough juice to annoy everyone involved.
This offense has zero identity, which means inconsistent usage and weekly heartbreak.
DEFCON 2 – Caution Zone
It’s not the end of the world… unless you actually wanted your rookie RB to play.
Baltimore Ravens
Welcome to Running Back Purgatory, where talent goes to wait.
Derrick Henry is here to eat, and they’ll feed him until his legs stop working.
Lamar Jackson is still the most electric ball carrier on the roster and he’s keeping the red zone work.
John Harbaugh doesn’t trust rookies easily so you'd better bring a lunch pail and a prayer.
Seattle Seahawks
They want to ride one back, and spoiler: it’s not your rookie.
Kenneth Walker is the guy: explosive and established, and the new OC’s crush.
Zach Charbonnet still lurks and ready to vulture touches on third downs and in short yardage.
Sam Darnold doesn’t scream “top 10 offense” which means fewer red zone chances to go around.
DEFCON 2 – Severe Risk
A fantasy value sinkhole for rookie backs.
Atlanta Falcons
Drafting a rookie RB here? You're just praying for an injury and calling it strategy.
Bijan Robinson is the offense: a generational talent with a full workload already in hand.
Tyler Allgeier still mixes in, especially in short-yardage and when they want to play bully ball.
The only touches available are crumbs and even those are guarded.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Volume? Opportunity? Nah. Just vibes and a crowded depth chart.
Rachaad White is already a high-volume do-it-all back and he’s proven he can carry the load.
Bucky Irving aced the eye test and is on a fast track to claiming the 1A role.
Baker’s throwing 40+ times to Evans, Godwin, and McMillan, not dumping it off to a rookie.
DEFCON 1 – Doomsday
The absolute worst-case scenario. If a rookie RB lands here, it’s time to mourn the pick.
Philadelphia Eagles
Where RBs go to block, not ball.
Jalen Hurts is a goal-line vulture until the tush push isn’t still a thing
Saquon Barkley is still that dude and the heartbeat of the team.
Brown and Smith dominate the target tree so there's nothing left to eat.
Detroit Lions
Run-heavy offense, but it’s already a two-man show.
Jahmyr Gibbs is on the verge of superstardom — electric in space and growing.
David Montgomery sets the tone — he’s the heartbeat of the offense.
Only role left is on special teams — and even that might be crowded.
Final Thought:
The NFL Draft giveth… and the landing spot taketh away.
You can scout the tape and lock in your rookie rankings. But the second that name gets called by the wrong team? Boom — value gone.
These DEFCON backfields aren’t just “bad fits” — they’re dynasty purgatory. Buried behind vets, trapped in committee hell, or stuck in pass-first offenses that treat running backs like a rounding error.
So when the draft hits, don’t just evaluate the talent — scout the minefield. Because hype fades fast when your rookie RB is returning kicks in Week 1.
Love the player, fear the jersey.
