The Hype Index - 06.02.25

Jun 2

Rookie fever never dies; it just shapeshifts. One minute, a fumble in May is a career death sentence, the next, it’s “good adversity” that builds character. In today’s snapshot, we’re checking the temperature on three rookie running backs: Bhayshul Tuten, who’s turning recent buzz into rising ADP (despite clutching the ball like it was coated in baby oil), and two falling rookies, Devin Neal and Trevor Etienne, who’ve cooled off in the market after lukewarm draft capital.

Let’s dig into the actual trade market, what these rookies are costing, and how that compares to the names they're being packaged with, or traded for. All trades were pulled from Dynasty Nerds, KEEP TRADE CUT, and Dynasty Daddy 5.31.25, and are from 5.29.25 or sooner.

Devin Neal | RB | New Orleans Saints

KTC: RB51 | DynastyNerds: RB53 | DynastyDaddy: RB47

30-Day Value Drop: -33%

In early March (yes, some leagues actually draft before the NFL even finishes its free agency cycle) Devin Neal was flirting with mid-2nd rookie draft value. There was an expectation of Day 2 draft capital. Instead? He slid to the 6th Round. And so did his value. He’s now going as the rookie pick 40-something, depending on your league.
But context matters.
Neal landed in a sneaky-good spot. The Saints are a backfield in transition. Kamara is the dude, but the tread is wearing. Kendre Miller has upside but has been more bust than dependable. Neal? He’s steady and the low-variance, plug-and-play option this offense can lean on if needed. The moment he leapfrogs Kendre Miller on the depth chart, it’s an instant bump in market value.
So if you didn’t scoop him in the 4th round of your rookie draft, what’s the cost now? Let’s hit the market.

**Devin Neal Rookie Draft ADP: 03.03.25 - 05.31.25**

Look at those rookie drafts in MARCH! They propped Neal up. Then the NFL draft happened, and boom, ADP crash. That chart is pure whiplash. A name everyone wanted to be something, until reality hit, and the market settled.

**Devin Neal Truther:** This was an overpay. Whether you’re contending or rebuilding, you can use those assets more efficiently. Neal might win the backup job, but this price will be there *after* that happens. Don’t pay the breakout tax yet.

**PSA: Don’t Do This.** Either someone’s out on Pearsall or way too in on Neal and Braelon Allen. Either way, this is leaving too much value on the table.

**Friends Don’t Let Friends Trade Like This.** If your buddy’s about to make this deal for Neal and friends, talk them down. We’re here to help each other, not roast or cheer on bad decisions. Even if James Conner remains ageless, Freiermuth breaks luuth, and Neal hits — this is bad process.

**Now This Is the Move.** Swapping Pollard for a 2nd might sting short-term, but this is how you stay ahead. You didn’t lose value, you just beat the clock by a year.

These are 3 other deals I would use to acquire Devin Neal.

Savvy Rebuilder Move

This is the kind of move I’m hunting for as a rebuilder, or just strong value. Yes, Jacobs is going to have another strong season. But good luck selling at this level next year.

Instead, you bring back Jayden Higgins, a 2026 1st, and Devin Neal as a free upside chip. Neal isn’t the reason you make this deal, he’s a bonus lottery ticket thrown into an already smart value pivot. This is how you accelerate the rebuild timeline without burning it all down.

Preference: Devin Neal

These are personal taste deals, but give me Devin Neal over both of these RB.

Trevor Etienne | RB | Carolina Panthers

KTC: RB56 | DynastyNerds: RB41 | DynastyDaddy: RB63

30-Day Drop: -43%

Trevor Etienne's ADP slid post-draft, but interestingly, he’s creeping back up. What was a nearly undrafted player is trending toward the early 4th in rookie drafts, and that quiet shift speaks volumes. The market is waking up to the idea that Carolina might not be a death sentence.
Etienne sits behind Chuba Hubbard, who got paid and will see work, but let’s not act like the RB2 spot is locked down by elite talent. Rico Dowdle is the only obstacle, and Etienne’s receiving chops give him a chance to carve out a role early. In a deep class, 4th-round draft capital is solid. If opportunity knocks, Etienne could become a relevant name in dynasty circles overnight.

**Flatlined Value, High Opportunity Potential.** Even with a small ADP bump, Etienne’s overall value has slid back to where it was pre-draft. But take a closer look at this backfield, if he handles business in camp, he could rocket up Carolina’s depth charts and dynasty boards.

**Savvy Rebuilder Move.** This is one of my favorite rebuild tactics: flip aging or volatile assets for picks. You won’t typically get a 1st for Ridley and McMillan, but the strategy holds, grab picks plus players like Etienne with a shot at opportunity. That’s how you stack future value without tanking flexibility.

**Sneaky Side Dish in a Blockbuster.** Flipping a 2026 1st and a rookie sampler platter for Nabers? Absolutely. But sneaking Etienne back in? That’s how you gain an edge. Nabers is filet mignon, Etienne is that unexpected seasoning that takes the dish up a notch. Small wins like this compound over time.

Playing the Hype Window Right. If you’re trying to flip for Etienne, these are the types of pieces to float. Roman Wilson has received some headlines, so capitalize. Use that momentum to land a player who is easier to evaluate. A 4th alone might not cut it anymore, but this is how you trade up without paying up.

PSA: Don’t Sell Low on Generational Talent. This is an Etienne piece, but let’s be real, this is a heist for Brock Bowers. I’ll preach the gospel of Colston Loveland all day, but you can’t trade Bowers for him, a 1st, and hope Etienne balances it out. Etienne shouldn’t be the piece that makes this feel even, and if it does, something’s gone wrong.

Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Jacksonville Jaguars

KTC: RB34 | DynastyNerds: RB34 | DynastyDaddy: RB35

30-Day Rise: +55%

Tuten’s heating up, moving from the early 3rd to a rock-solid mid-2nd in rookie ADP. And his trade market’s catching fire too, with deals coming in *above* that 2nd-round value. Why? Because the Etienne silence is loud, and the role reduction started last season. If you’ve read my recent **Keep Trade Cut** piece, you already know the signs are pointing toward change.
Tuten is a strong fit, and the first running back drafted by Liam Coen. Tank Bigsby offers minimal in the passing game. LeQuint Allen is basically a WR moonlighting as a RB. But Tuten? He can eat into Tank’s carries and carve out that valuable passing-down role. Think back to Cam Akers/Darrell Henderson in 2022 and Bucky Irving/Rachad White in 2024, this system takes care of the running backs.
Tuten’s not rising, he’s accelerating. Let’s break down the trade market and see what it’s going to cost you.

Day 3, No Problem. Bhayshul Tuten has seen a steady rise in his ADP since the draft, despite being a Day 3 pick. This chart shows the market is confident in him and buying into his hype.

**Stamp of Approval.** This one’s everywhere — and a price I’d easily pay if you believe. The hype feels legit by the coaching staff. If he shows out in camp, his value keeps climbing. A future 2nd could turn a pretty profit to a contender or rebuilder soon.

Overpay? Deals like a 2nd plus a player show some managers are ready to pay up for Tuten. But the truth is a 2nd — or a player in that range — is getting it done in most leagues. The market’s heating, but it’s still within reach.

**More Juice, Same Squeeze.** RJ Harvey’s a late 1st guy. Tuten’s a mid-2nd. If you can use a 2026 1st plus a couple late to get both instead of just Harvey? That’s how you stretch a pick’s value. One pick, two assets, and more upside.

**Pick Your Flavor, Add a Cherry.** Skattebo usually goes ahead of Tuten in rookie drafts. If you prefer Tuten, great, just don’t pay even. Find the manager who loves Skattebo and squeeze a little extra out. A small throw-in turns a preference into a win.

Sweeten the Pot. Sometimes it just takes a nudge, like adding a 2026 3rd to another rookie. to pry Tuten loose. Small adds can tip the scale without costing you value.