The Hype Index - 07.08.25
Something’s in the water in Columbus. Four straight years. Four first-round wideouts with Emeka Egbuka, and the best one may still be in the wings. Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr. walked out of the same Ohio State locker room and into the NFL with sky-high expectations and somehow, they're all still rookie-deal buys with WR1 dreams.
Now, in 2025, they’ve ended up stacked next to each other in dynasty consensus rankings. So what’s real, what’s noise, and what’s the price to play?
All trades were pulled 7/4/25-7/5/25 on Dynasty Daddy.
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Arizona Cardinals
Sleeper: WR11 | DynastyNerds: WR9 | KTC: WR10 | Dynasty Daddy: WR11 | FantasyPros: WR14
2024 ADP: WR5 | 14 overall
Hype Trend: As if it could have gotten any higher, it has cooled immensely since his rookie season with Nabors and BTJ owning the stage.
Labeled a generational talent before ever stepping on an NFL field, Marvin Harrison Jr.'s rookie year was more frustrating than fantastic. On the surface, his 62/885/8 stat line doesn’t scream “bust,” but that’s the curse of being called “generational.” Anything less than dominance feels like a letdown. The real concern? His connection with Kyler Murray. Harrison caught just 53% of his targets, including a dismal 5-of-13 in the red zone, right in line with guys like Jalen Tolbert and Cade Otten. Yikes.
The scheme didn’t help. Arizona lined him up outside on the line nearly 80% of the time, rarely using motion or creative alignments to free him up. That’s coaching malpractice when you have a Maserati in the garage. Harrison added muscle this offseason, but what he needs is a route tree with more branches and a QB who can consistently feed him.
I’m on Marvin long-term. The traits are elite. The usage is fixable. But the coaching staff and Kyler have to evolve, or Harrison’s ceiling will remain capped.
Matthew Harmon’s charting work is must-see stuff for anyone serious about WR analysis. His data on route percentages and success rates adds real context beyond box scores. With Marvin Harrison Jr., the numbers were eye-opening: over 80% of his routes came downfield.
Despite that rigid usage, he won on most of those routes. The problem isn’t Marvin, it’s the ecosystem around him. Until Arizona starts scheming him free and letting him operate across the full route tree. The blow-up weeks will come, but don’t count on consistency.
MHJ was top 25 in the league in pass snaps, routes run, and targets; the volume was there. But the production? Not even close. He finished 37th in receptions and 30th in receiving yards. That’s a large gap between opportunity and output.
Start with the 76th-ranked passer rating when targeted. Then add a league-leading 45 uncatchable targets, and it becomes clear: Marvin wasn’t the issue. The problem was the ecosystem.
This side-by-side of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride highlights the stark contrasts in their usage profiles, most notably in Average Depth of Target (ADoT), Passer Rating When Targeted, and total Receptions. These differences tell the story of two very different roles.
Mid-1st for Marvin? That trend started before the snow even fell.
By midseason 2024, managers were already finding Marvin Harrison Jr. for what looked like a little more than a mid-1st in return. I struck early, flipping the 2025 1.06, which turned into Travis Hunter, for MHJ back in November. At the time, I felt great about the deal, and here we are in the 2025 offseason, that deal is still available.
Love Nico, not enough to pass up a Marvin combo tho
Nico Collins has proven he's a legit NFL star in a high-powered Houston offense. But if I can flip him for Marvin Harrison Jr. and a 1st-round pick, that’s enough upside and insulation for me to move off Nico without blinking.
Good for a sprint. Some are building for a marathon
Contenders look at the Saquon/Rashee Rice side and see production, and that’s valid. But for a rebuilder, this deal is easy for me. I move off an aging RB and a volatile WR prospect in exchange for future value.
This Deal Won’t Age Well.
These trades are hard to justify from the Marvin Harrison Jr. / TreVeyon Henderson owner. You gave up two premium, young players for George Pickens, 26 rookie picks, and some throw-ins, hoping a lot of things break your way. Even if you’re out on those players long-term, you can’t be selling for pennies on the dollar. At worst, hold for a better market.
Rookie Fever!
Marvin Harrison Jr. or RJ Harvey?
Marvin or Tetairoa McMillan?
Are owners making these pivots after just one season? This is how you lose value, flipping a second-year breakout candidate for another rookie gamble. Harrison’s value floor is insulated, and you don’t trade that for a player who hasn’t taken an NFL snap. In dynasty, patience often wins.
Purdy Got Paid, Managers Making Profit
I’m thrilled for Brock Purdy, from Mr. Irrelevant to $53 million man. He’s earned his spot as a solid backend QB1 for San Francisco. But in dynasty, turning your QB3 into Marvin Harrison Jr. and a 2027 1st-round pick is the type of move that can pay off massively over time. Even if Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones are zeros, this deal makes long-term sense. You’re exchanging immediate security for elite potential and future capital, a win for any rebuilder or value-driven manager.
Consensus flipped. But should you?
This trade is a perfect closer: it puts JSN and Achane up against MHJ and Breece Hall. Achane has climbed past Hall in most rankings, and JSN has even leapfrogged Marvin on some boards. So is JSN/Achane the clear win?
Let me know your thoughts on this blockbuster.
Verdict: SCREAMING BUY. Take advantage of any panic
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s stock is wildly depressed, and it has almost nothing to do with his actual talent. If his name wasn’t tied to a HoFer, this market drop would look ridiculous. This was the 1.01–1.03 in SuperFlex just last year, and now he’s getting moved for a mid future 1st and some window dressing. These are the overreactions that separate contenders from the pack. Smart managers buy here.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seattle Seahawks
Sleeper: WR12 | DynastyNerds: WR12 | KTC: WR11 | Dynasty Daddy: WR12 | FantasyPros: WR12
2024 ADP: WR29 | 71 Overall
Trend: Hot. From WR3 territory to WR1 across these platforms.
Savvy managers knew JSN would need time. He stepped into a crowded room with established stars and wasn’t going to command volume right away. His rookie stat line (63/628/4) didn’t move the needle for most of the community. As a result, his value dropped hard: from WR13 to WR29 in one season.
But the leap came fast. JSN rewarded patient investors with a WR10 finish in 2024, skyrocketing his stock back into fringe WR1 territory in startup drafts. His sharp route running and PPR-friendly role paid off.
Now the question is the scheme. Both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, but a new offensive philosophy looms.
Can JSN remain the volume sponge that pushed him into elite ranks, or will Seattle’s shifting identity muddy the waters again?
JSN ran 625 routes last year, the 6th most in the league. Over 30% came near the line of scrimmage, which tracks with his 75th-ranked aDOT, and he dominated those looks. Volume was the engine: 7th in pass snaps, 11th in targets, 7th in receptions. But if that efficiency dips? He’ll need to fix the 72nd-ranked YPR.
These deals start league wars
There’s straight-up looting going on for JSN. Those top two trades? The kind of deals that end leagues. The bottom trade isn’t as egregious, but it’s still a slam-dunk for a contender. And what I love here is how fast managers flip proven high-end talent to hold 27 picks for the next 2 seasons.
HELLO! 2027 1st again
Turning depth into dominance
Xavier Worthy had a solid rookie season, flashes, but not a consistent impact. Packaging him with a backup RB to land JSN-level talent is the perfect kind of value consolidation. You’re flipping flex pieces into a legit WR1.
Fair Deals?
A couple of managers landed the Drake Maye/JSN combo, and both trades feel fair in a vacuum. There’s logic on either side. But I’m curious—where does the dynasty community fall on this one? Imleaning McCarthy and BTJ on top, and JSN/Maye on the bottom.
Pick your flavor
Most consensus rankings have AJ Brown and JSN in the same tier. This is a pure preference move; the third is noise. Take the guy you believe in.
BIG BOY DEAL.
A ton of top-tier talent (and yes, another 2027 1st) changing hands. I keep flipping sides on who I prefer, which usually means it’s a pretty well-balanced trade. Both teams had a plan, now I’m just curious: which side would you rather have?
Trade Up, or Out?
Trading a JSN package for Nabers can make sense in the right context, but not this one. For me, Nabers has a real shot to break into that elite tier with JJ and Chase in the next few years. JSN’s great, but this particular return doesn’t match Nabers’ ceiling.
Verdict: BUY. However, not over MHJ at equal value.
Some of these JSN deals were straight-up robberies, but overall, the market favored JSN over Marvin. That’s recency bias talking, JSN dominated late while MHJ sputtered with a bunch of single-digit weeks. Then came the Metcalf departure narrative, and suddenly, everyone sees a higher floor for JSN. I’m still in at these prices… but if I can get Marvin Harrison Jr. for the same cost, I’m taking that swing every time.
Garrett Wilson | WR | New York Jets
Sleeper: WR13 | DynastyNerds: WR11 | KTC: WR13 | Dynasty Daddy: WR15 | FantasyPros: WR13
24 ADP: WR7 | 22 Overall
Trend: Wilson is down to his lowest ranking since before his rookie season (WR20). There may be more concern than hype if he can’t replicate last year’s success.
The Rodgers experiment was somehow worse than even the biggest skeptics predicted. After a spectacular rookie year, Garrett Wilson was expected to explode with Aaron Rodgers under center. Instead, we got four snaps, a popped Achilles, and another season of Wilson juggling throws from backup-level quarterbacks.
Expectations remained sky-high entering 2024, but he started slow, until a 23-target eruption in Week 5 reminded everyone who he was. Even after Davante Adams arrived in Week 7, Wilson stayed hot… for a while. But after the bye, the offense shifted hard toward Rodgers-to-Adams padding career stats mode. Garrett became a bystander.
Now Rodgers is gone, and in comes Justin Fields, Wilson’s first college QB. The system may lean run-heavy, but the connection between Fields and Wilson offers a spark. With a rookie TE leading the depth chart and no proven WR2, Wilson should be Fields’ first and second read on most snaps.
So what now? Is the market cautious enough to pounce, or has the hype machine already fired back up?
Garrett Wilson is one of the best separators in the league, and his nearly all-green success rate chart backs it up. The wild part? The Jets barely schemed him. He was stuck running mostly go balls and slants, instead of being moved around to weaponize his elite route running. Despite that handicap, he still finished top 5 in receptions, targets, routes, and pass snaps. That usage isn’t going anywhere in 2025.
The Other Buckeye
I was never sold on Chris Olave’s ceiling, but I figured a Tyler Lockett-type career was well within range. Three seasons in, it’s clear Garrett Wilson has separated himself, showing more durability, more consistency, and thriving despite mostly shakier QB play. If you can flip Olave for Wilson at this price? That’s a move I’m exploring in every league.
Picks Well Spent
Two 1sts is the going rate for Garrett Wilson, so landing him for less feels like a win. And if you’re adding another premium player like Kenneth Walker to the mix? That’s how you maximize pick value and build a contender. Oh, and yes, shoutout to another 2027 1st making its way into the deal.
2.05 > 2.03… in this case
Depending on your rookie tiers, that 2.03 to 2.05 move can be significant. For me, this wasn’t just about rookie draft position; it was a clear tier-up in dynasty ranks,
These Rookies are So Hot Right Now.
I still have Garrett Wilson ranked above all the top rookie wideouts. Proven talent matters, and Wilson has shown it. You want to boat or the box?
Con Game
Some managers have zero confidence left in Garrett Wilson. That’s not your problem. The real question is: Have you sent out an offer today? Because if not, someone else is buying that dip.
Blockbuster or Theft?
Which side of this blockbuster are you on? For me, the Lamar Jackson side is an easy smash, regardless of who ends up at 2.01. In any format, securing an elite QB is how you win leagues, and this deal checks that box with authority, along with a young WR and RB to top the deal.
Verdict: STRONG BUY. Still underpriced for a future WR1.
Garrett Wilson’s cost remains surprisingly affordable given the value he can deliver over the next several years. He’s an elite separator with strong hands and consistently turns targets into production, even in chaotic QB situations. With Fields likely to hyper-target him, Wilson should thrive, even if the overall pass volume dips. This has signs of being his best season yet.
