The Hype Index - 07.15.25
The dynasty streets are heating up, and three running backs are riding different waves. Breece Hall finds himself surrounded by smoke. Managers expected more in 2024 and are starting to panic. Chase Brown is catching fire after proving he can handle a full workload in Cincinnati. And Bucky Irving is straight-up blazing, with dynasty managers pushing him into the top 10 off half a season of promise.
In this edition of The Hype Index, we look at their ADP trends and dive into real trade market data to help you decide: is this hype worth trading for or trade away?
All Trades Were Pulled on 07.13.25
Breece Hall | RB | New York Jets
Sleeper: RB8 | Dynasty Nerds: RB8 | KTC: RB8 | Dynasty Daddy: RB10 | FantasyPros: RB8
2024 ADP: RB3 | 18 Overall
Hype Level: Smoke
Trend:
The Breece Hall experience left fantasy managers feeling underwhelmed. Expectations were sky-high entering 2024, but his RB16 finish didn’t deliver the punch managers expected. Hall hasn’t cleared 1,000 rushing yards in any of his first three seasons. Instead, his value has leaned heavily on his 152 receptions for nearly 1,300 yards through the air over that span. Add in negative buzz around a potential RBBC, and suddenly the shine is dimmer entering the 2025 season.
Best Case Scenario:
All the committee chatter vanishes in week 1 as Hall dominates the backfield. In a run-heavy system designed to support Justin Fields, Breece becomes the focal point. Fields, who checked it down at one of the highest rates in the NFL in 2024 (yes, really), leans into Hall’s strengths as a pass catcher. A confident, motivated runner, as well as explosive plays, return. Hall pushes into RB1 overall territory and regains elite dynasty value.
Worst Case Scenario:
The committee whispers turn out to be more than noise. While Hall remains the lead back, his role becomes fragmented. Braelon Allen siphons off early-down work, Davis eats into his target share, and Justin Fields vultures red zone opportunities. The offense sputters, and Hall’s weekly usage becomes volatile. By season’s end, he’s a talented back stuck in a limited role, heading into 2026 free agency with uncertain value.
Hall Pass
Hall and Spears are betting on a 2025 revival, with Hall still capable of pushing RB1 ceiling. Kaleb provides you with bankable volume, and the 2027 1st is a solid future asset. Aiyuk? He’s “ahead of schedule,” but that schedule leads straight to a WR room logjam.
RB Judgement Lapse
Breece is getting traded for backs with lower ADPs. I can see the logic swapping him for TreVeyon Henderson, gain a couple of valuable RB years. But trading Hall for James Cook or Kyran Williams? Can’t do it.
Bargain Breece
Grab Breece for a 2026 1st and a little sweetener. His 2024 left a bad taste, but talent doesn’t vanish, especially not with his passing game upside.
Jeanty FOMO
Passing on Ashton Jeanty isn’t for the faint of heart. But moving down to 1.09 and grabbing Breece Hall plus a 27 1st creates immediate value. When Hall regains his form, you turned hype into win-now production and long-term sustainability.
Conversation Starter
A future 1st is the floor in any Breece Hall deal, not the price tag. His market is strong, and you’ll need to stack a legit fantasy player on top. Managers may be frustrated by 2024, but they haven’t forgotten what Hall can do.
Not only are owners adding a 1st to close the deal for Breece Hall, some are adding two.
Pickens’ move to Dallas has reignited his ceiling in a higher-scoring offense. Adding a hot 27 1st with him to acquire Breece is still not too high for buyers.
Swift and Shakir are solid flex options for fantasy, and Khalil even secured a $60 million extension for security. I like packaging those 2 names for Breece Hall, who has the ceiling to be a top-tier RB1 just behind the big 3.
Hunter’s Hype Haul
The hype on Travis Hunter has been a yo-yo: corner? receiver? unicorn? Who knows. But while the mystery’s working in your favor, flipping him for two proven players like Breece Hall and Rashee Rice is how you add instant value. As soon as reality hits and Hunter’s role clarifies, the window shuts.
Verdit: Buy Breece Hall for a 1st & 2nd. The window is still open, but that might not be true for long. With training camp around the corner, the drumbeat of coachspeak could keep pushing his price down as they hype up Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, and yes, even UDFA Isaiah Edwards. But when the pads come on and the games matter, the best talent on the field will be Breece Hall.
In a contract year, expect him to be motivated, explosive, and looking for that next payday. And if the Jets are stubborn enough to play games with his touches? Hall has the kind of profile that could excel with a new team. You don’t get many chances to buy that archetype below market. Take it while it lasts.
Chase Brown | RB | Cincinnati Bengals
Sleeper: RB16 | Dynasty Nerds: RB18 | KTC: RB13 | Dynasty Daddy: RB15 | FantasyPros: RB12
2024 ADP: RB38 | 140 overall
Hype Level: Fire
Trend:
Brown flashed in Week 4 and never looked back, overtaking Zack Moss and stepping into a dual threat role in Cincinnati. The Bengals' decision to pass on selecting an earlier round RB in a loaded rookie class signals major internal confidence. Even the harshest critics are coming around. The ceiling is real.
Best Case Scenerio:
Brown continues where he left off, dominating both the ground game and the passing work in a fast-paced offense led by Joe Burrow. With no serious competition behind him and full team confidence, Brown becomes a true three-down weapon. The efficiency remains, the workload stabilizes, and he finishes the year as a top-8 RB, securing his value as an RB1 in dynasty.
Worst Case Scenario
Zack Moss remains annoyingly involved, and the team’s pass rate limits Brown’s touch ceiling. A slow start lets Moss, or even Brooks, creep in, and suddenly Brown’s role is less alpha. He produces, albeit inconsistently. His 2024 surge is viewed more as a blip than a breakout, and his dynasty stock cools just as quickly as it rose.
The Totality of the Deal
I prefer Breece over Chase Brown, but let’s debate Olave + a 2026 2nd vs Sutton + a 2027 1st. If you believe in Olave, that side gives you the better player and a shot at real upside in 2025. But if you're more risk-averse, the Sutton + 1st package feels safer to me. Depends on your strategy?
Level Up
Chase Brown’s hype is legit but so is the opportunity to upgrade. Flipping Brown and Kenneth Walker for a player like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who’s inching into dynasty WR1 discussions, is a sharp move. JSN has a clear runway. Use Brown’s momentum while it’s hot.
Mystery Boxes
If you can get Chase Brown for a 2026 1st, don’t blink. That’s a high-floor, high-ceiling RB. Rebuilders are itching to shed points, and Brown is the kind of player who’s too productive to stash. This is a dynasty sweet spot: contending teams lock in points for 2025.
On The Clock
Chase Brown isn’t a “wait and see” rookie. He’s a starting RB attached to one of the league’s better offenses. If you're sitting on a pick that’s likely in the 1.08–1.12 range, it’s not close, take the points now.
Hype is Currency
Love this move. You’re taking two hyped up players and turning them into a bona fide star. Brown’s value is soaring, and Pickens has believers. Use that momentum. Consolidating into a known difference-maker gives you reliable production that wins weeks.
Verdict: Buy for a late 1st. Chase Brown may not have the flashy pedigree, but the production is real. He showed he can handle volume and deliver when asked. Cincinnati didn’t bring in any real competition, which speaks volumes.
You’re buying a starting RB tied to a strong offense for the cost of a late 1st-round rookie pick. That’s a price you pay every time. Brown isn’t just a flier anymore — he’s earned his shot, and at this price, you’re not chasing ceiling, you’re locking in value.
Bucky Irving | RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sleeper: RB7 | Dynasty Nerds: RB9 | KTC: RB7 | Dynasty Daddy: RB7 | FantasyPros: RB8
2024 ADP: RB49 | 182 overall
Hype Level: Blazing
Trend:
Irving entered the league as a day 3 dart throw but quickly proved he belonged. Despite staying under a 50% snap share for much of the first half of the season, he finished with over 1,100 rushing yards at nearly 5.5+ YPC and added 47 receptions for nearly 400 yards. His burst and contact balance consistently outshone Rachaad White, and by season’s end, he had seized control of the backfield. With a more defined role entering 2025, dynasty managers are buying in hard.
Best Case Scenario:
He’s the heartbeat of the offense from the jump, handling a heavy workload despite his sub-200 lb frame. He stays healthy, continues to run with fury, and capitalizes on checkdowns while still breaking big plays. Even with weapons around him, the Bucs run their offense through Irving, with White only entering the game to refill Bucky’s Gatorade. The efficiency holds, the volume climbs, and he delivers mid RB1 production all year long.
Worst Case Scenario:
Liam Coen’s departure shakes up the offense. Baker leans more on his receivers. Irving ends up leading a frustrating committee with White. His efficiency regresses, and the volume just isn’t enough to crack the top tiers. Worse, his lighter frame shows signs of wear and tear. Instead of a breakout, 2025 brings volatility and disappointment for anyone who paid up.
QB For A Bucky
Irving’s value is surging, and it’s opened a bizarre lane. Whether you're trying to land your SuperFlex anchor or just a stable 1QB starter, this is the kind of deal that shouldn’t be available, yet somehow is. Don’t ask questions. Press accept.
Bucky or Chase Brown plus?
Which side do you prefer in these Bucky vs Brown trades? I love acquiring Bucky and Tetairoa for Saquon and Brown.
Wonder Years
Bucky has four years on JT, and in RB years, that’s significant. The tread is wearing thin on Taylor, but Bucky’s just getting started. That’s how you future-proof without punting upside.
Pivot or not Pivot
I could pivot off the 1.02 for Bucky and a 2027 1st. But Bucky + Olave + a 2nd for Ashton? Hard pass. And it’s not Bucky’s fault, it’s my distrust in Olave.
Proven Asset
Ricky Pearsall’s hype has been real this offseason thanks to San Francisco’s wide-open WR room. But if you can turn Pearsall, a late 1st, and a couple 2026 mystery boxes into Bucky Irving, you convert speculation into stability.
Chasing The Peak
Jamar Chase is commanding everything but your soul this offseason. It’s a serious haul, but the real question is: do you believe Chase is worth it?
Verdict: Buy Bucky Irving for shy of 2 1sts, Sell for 2+ 1sts. Let’s not ignore reality: some managers are paying significantly more. If you can flip Bucky for a high-end starting QB in SuperFlex, that’s an auto-smash. These deals don’t come often, make them when they do.
Would I move a guy like Jonathan Taylor for Bucky straight up? Absolutely. That’s gaining youth and upside in one clean move. But don’t get swept up in the fire. If you’re paying a premium to ride the hype, you’re probably overextending. There are other backs out there who can give you most of his production at a fraction of the cost.
