Vet Fatigue Report - 06.15.25

The 2017 RB draft class was legendary, producing multiple league-winners and names etched into fantasy football glory. But time comes for all backs, and with James Conner, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara, that time might be now. These aren’t your typical washed-up vets, they’re still producing. But the cliff is real, and it’s lurking behind every carry. In this edition of the Vet Fatigue Report, we ask the uncomfortable question: are these aging RBs worth riding into the playoffs… or is now finally the time to sell before the floor vanishes?

All trades were pulled on 06.12.25-06.13.25 from Dynasty Daddy.

Alvin Kamara | RB | New Orleans Saints

Sleeper: RB23 | Dynasty Nerds: RB20 | DD: RB22 | KTC: RB22 | FantasyPros: RB24

Current ADP Range: ~85 - 90 overall (Round 8)

Trend: Similar range as 2024, but down about a round of ADP from April.

Alvin Kamara has become the comfort food of contending rosters. His ADP hasn’t moved much in the last year, hovering right around pick 90, and he remains firmly valued as a top-24 dynasty RB across the board. With a fresh two-year extension that included an additional $12 million guaranteed, he’s locked into New Orleans through 2026. The Saints view him as part of their core, and for fantasy purposes, that pass-catching role gives him a stable weekly floor.

But cracks are showing. Kamara hasn’t held up late in the year, with recent playoff runs derailed by wear and tear. And while he still carries RB1 upside on volume alone, the market seems uneasy post-draft. Kamara’s ADP took about a round hit after Neal was drafted, signaling the dynasty community sees a legitimate threat.

So what’s he worth? He still feels like a contender “trade for” target. But we’ve said that before and his price hasn’t dropped.

Can you get Kamara for a 2nd, or has his name value held the 1st-round line?

Locked In ‘Til the Wheels Fall Off
Kamara’s extension makes it unlikely for the Saints to move on before 2026. With minimal cap savings and massive dead money, he’s all but guaranteed to be on the roster for the next two seasons.

Alvin Kamara Contract 2024 - 2026. OverTheCap.com.

Too Cheap to Ignore
If Kamara is going this cheap, contenders and rebuilders should be pouncing. You’re not finding this value for the price of a late 2nd.

Role Secured, Decline the Only Risk
This is the baseline cost for a Kamara deal. With the extension in place, Kamara’s job is safe. The only question left is how long his legs hold up.

All-In on Kamara
This manager is committed to Kamara. Giving up a premium RB prospect and future 1st/2nd is a bold bet on immediate contention… and a likely overpay.

What’s The Kickback?
A 1st gets Kamara in most leagues, but sharp managers ask for a little extra in return. Snagging a late 2nd back gives you another dart (maybe even Devin Neal) or other ammo for your next vet upgrade

Double Tap the Veterans
This manager switched out Pitts for Kittle, then added Kamara, turning youth into win-now firepower. When a team’s offloading vets don’t stop at one.

Flip the Hype, Stack the Value
Chase Brown’s buzz is real, but turning him into Kamara and the 1.08 is a savvy pivot. You get a productivity plus a premium pick to reload or repackage.

Verdict: Sell High
Kamara is safe for the next two seasons, and for contenders, he’s a strong plug-and-play asset. But his market is hot right now. If you can get a 1st, and especially if you can squeeze back a young RB like Kaleb Johnson or RJ Harvey plus something, it’s the kind of pivot that sets you up for now and later. Use the leverage while you’ve got it.

Aaron Jones | RB | Minnesota Vikings

Sleeper: RB34 | Dynasty Nerds: RB35 | DD: RB37 | KTC: RB36 | FantasyPros: RB31

Current ADP Range: ~105 -110 overall (Round 10)

Trend: Down slightly from last season, but up ~2 rounds in ADP from April pre-NFL Draft (~130 overall)

Clock’s Ticking in Minnesota
Jones is safe for 2024, but there’s an out in 2025 with $7.2 million in cap relief. His future beyond this season is not secure.

Aaron Jones has been a model of efficiency throughout his career: four RB1 seasons, consistent pass-game involvement, and a knack for maximizing limited touches. But 2023 brought something new: Jones surpassed 300 touches for the first time in his career. He posted a career-low yards per carry, and while he still delivered a solid RB2 season, the Vikings saw the need to scale him back.

Enter Jordan Mason. The bruiser from San Francisco was brought in to handle the gritty work, and more importantly, the short-yardage grinding. With Minnesota hoping to make a playoff push, expect Jones’ snap share (63% in 2024) to drop and total touches to be closer to 200 than 250.

He’ll be valuable for your fantasy team. But with reduced volume and his age-30 season, expect a capped ceiling in 2025. He’s less RB2 and more flex play. He’s a rental for contenders, albeit increasingly risky.

The real question: How much are you paying for that rental? Age, touch count, and capped upside should be baked into the cost, but is the market offering discounts?

Aaron Jones contract 2025-2026. OverTheCap.com

Championship Upside, Bargain Price
Flipping dart throws into proven producers like Jones and Meyers is how contenders separate. This kind of value buy can be the difference between a good roster and a title run.

Context is Important
These deals come down to roster needs. If you’re thin at TE, flipping Jones for Jonnu, or visa versa, isn’t flashy, but it’s a functional upgrade that fits a contender’s puzzle.

Rebuilders should be flipping Jones for younger upside like Jayden Reed, resetting value on a fading asset. But for contenders eyeing 2025 glory, buying Jones at that price is a win-now swing.

The Goal is a Title
Trading Nico Collins stings, and on paper, this deal can look lopsided. But for contenders, it’s the kind of depth-loading move that wins titles. The per-game gap between Collins and Davante Adams was just 0.4 points, and you’re adding an RB2, a QB2, and a top-14 rookie pick. This isn’t a downgrade, it’s a reallocation of assets that builds out your lineup for a real 2025 run.

You’re trading down from Smith and Cook, but the replacements still keep you in the fight. The real win? Picking up two future 1sts while maintaining your 2025 contender status. This move gives your team flexibility while maintaining your championship window.

Swapping Chuba for the Vikings backfield and a ‘26 2nd may cost you a couple of points per game, but you gain insurance and trade ammo. Whether you're contending or retooling, this is smart asset stacking.

Verdict: Buy for a 3rd, Sell for a 2nd
Jones has juice left, but the runway is short. With reduced volume and a murky 2026 outlook, he’s best viewed as a short-term RB2 with weekly upside. Buy low now, and look to flip in-season if he flashes, or cash out for a 2nd.

James Conner | RB | Arizona Cardinals

Sleeper: RB29 | Dynasty Nerds: RB30 | DD: RB29 | KTC: RB30 | FantasyPros: RB30

Current ADP: ~95-100 overall (Round 9)

Trend: An increase in ADP of ~2 rounds since last year (~120 overall)

James Conner won’t go away, and for fantasy managers, that’s a good thing. He earned a midseason extension in 2024 and enters this year as the clear RB1 in Arizona. His violent, punishing style gets the job done, and when healthy, he delivers. But health is the obvious caveat, and the presence of Trey Benson is a looming question.

While Conner is locked in for 2025, his contract gives the Cardinals an out in 2026. If Benson flashes signs of being the future, Conner’s value could dry up overnight. That said, there’s real meat on the bone in 2025. He’s the kind of rental that could help carry you to a title.

So what’s that worth to you? If Conner holds the starting job, he’ll outproduce his price. But if you're paying for anything beyond this season, you’re probably overpaying.

James Conner Contract 2024-2026: OverTheCap.com

Is 2025 the End
Conner’s contract gives Arizona an out after this season, with $8 million in cap savings. He’s a one-year rental, plan accordingly.

Deals Are Flexible
Conner typically goes for a 2nd, but smart managers are squeezing more value. Whether it’s adding a pick back or settling for a later-round swap, there’s wiggle room in the market.

Level Up Before the Window Closes
Flipping Conner plus 1st’s for a player like Jahmyr Gibbs is how contenders add gamechangers. You’re not just chasing points, you’re locking in a weekly stud for years.

Free Value, No Belief Required
Swapping Daniel Jones and James Conner for Chase Brown is a no-brainer. Even if you’re not sold on Brown long term, the market value swing is too good to pass up.

Youth vs. Now
It’s a classic fork in the road: flip for a premium rookie RB to build for the future, or stick with the vets for a shot at the 2025 title. Both sides make sense, it just depends on your strategy and beliefs.

Smash That Accept
If someone’s paying a 1st, take it and run. That’s an overpay in every market.

Verdict: Sell James Conner Immediately
Conner’s 2024 was a career outlier with 16 games played and a new high in touches. But with his injury history and Benson lurking, the chances of a repeat RB1 season feel slim. Cash out now before the volume and value start to fade.

Joe Mixon | RB | Houston Texans

Sleeper: RB22 | Dynasty Nerds: RB23 | DD: RB25 | KTC: RB24 | FantasyPros: RB22

Current ADP: ~75-80 overall (Round 7)

Trend: Steady, Mixon has stayed in this range for the last year

The 1st Is Right—But It Hurts
Selling Mixon for a 1st is a sharp move value-wise, but for contenders, parting with both him and Kamara can feel like waving the white flag.

Joe Mixon has been a juggernaut in fantasy football, with five RB1 seasons (nearly a sixth last year) and a four-year average of 300+ touches and double-digit TDs. That’s elite consistency. But the formula has always been about volume, and last year Mixon cracked the top 50 all-time in career touches. That’s getting dangerously close to the edge.

Houston’s backfield added Nick Chubb, likely to siphon off some of the early and short yardage, and rookie Woody Marks, a pass-game specialist who could eat into Mixon’s receiving work. If each takes just a slice, say 4 touchdowns here, 25 catches there, that may be all it takes to drag Mixon down from fringe RB1 to low-end RB2 or worse. Valuable, but unfortunately, tiering down.

The real question: Is the market pricing in this risk? Because if it’s still valuing him as a 300-touch RB1, there could be a reckoning coming. Mixon’s fantasy value isn’t built on efficiency or explosiveness; it’s built on opportunity. And that opportunity is about to shrink.

Mixon’s contract 2025-2026: OverTheCap.com

There is only a $2mil dead cap hit in 2026.

Take the Picks
Mixon and Conner carry similar risk profiles, so give me the one that comes with extra picks. When aging vets are this close in value, the added capital makes the decision easy.

Impatience Is the Enemy of Value
Flipping Kincaid for a short-term RB may fill a need, but selling low after one quiet season is risky, especially in dynasty. In non-TEP, it’s understandable, but this is the kind of move that ages poorly fast.

Depth for Production
Using depth players like Tillman and James for Mixon is a classic contender move: low risk, high reward. Dynasty is personal, ride with your convictions.

Don’t Panic-Sell a Potential QB1
Even with Tua’s concussion concerns, moving him in SuperFlex should come with a premium. If you're selling, make sure you're getting real value; QB1s don’t grow on waiver wires.

Verdict: Sell Mixon for a 2nd or Less
If you’re not contending, don’t let Mixon rot on your bench. These aging RBs should either be locked into your starting lineup chasing a title, or shipped out for whatever value you can squeeze.